Choose your path
There is little evidence that a housing bubble is about to burst, according to Moody’s Analytics, GlobeSt.com reported June 13. Higher mortgage rates coupled with expensive housing should slow demand and cause prices to moderate. Moody’s also noted a lack of extreme speculation and overbuilding, two issues that contributed to the housing bubble in the mid-2000s.
A moderate increase in cap rates is expected in the near-term, with the multifamily and industrial sectors holding steady, but the office, retail and hotel sectors responding to rising interest rates, according to Moody’s Analytics, GlobeSt.com reported June 10. While tightening monetary policy and the conflict in Ukraine have increased market risk, performance metrics for commercial real estate are steady.
The U.S. hospitality sector is expected to recover sooner than expected, with revenue per available room (known as RevPAR) returning to pre-COVID levels later this year rather than in 2024, as has been previously forecast, according to STR and Tourism Economics, MBA NewsLink reported June 15. The quicker recovery is attributed to higher room rates due to inflation and increased guest spending.
Luxury home sales are on the decline, down 17.8% year-over-year through April, whereas home sales in the non-luxury sector are only down 5.4%, Redfin reported June 10. Luxury homes, which are defined as the most expensive 5% of properties in each metro area, are losing their luster amid interest rates hikes and economic uncertainty.
Mortgage rates climbed more than half a percentage point during the past week, marking the largest weekly increase since 1987, Freddie Mac reported June 16 in its Primary Mortgage Market Survey. The increase, which is the result of monetary policy and shifting expectations about inflation, is expected to result in a more balanced housing market.
Construction costs are up due to ongoing materials shortages, and combined with interest rate increases, overall housing production has declined 14.4% from the previous month, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau, the National Association of Home Builders reported June 16. The multifamily housing sector experienced a 23.7% drop.
Inflation and rising interest rates have caused real estate values to drop 5-10% year-over-year in some areas of the U.S. and Europe, according to the global chief investment officer of Hines, Bloomberg reported June 13. The market for office space has been hardest hit in the U.S., with the demand for rental housing also starting to wane.
Investment in commercial real estate is off to a strong start with a record $292 billion during the first quarter, according to JLL, MBA NewsLink reported June 15. Office sector investment was $81 billion, the most in 15 years, while hotel investment reached $16 billion, a 127% increase from the same point a year ago.
The medical office sector has 703 buildings under construction, accounting for more than 50 million square feet as America’s aging population continues to drive demand for services, WealthManagement.com reported June 13. That’s six million square feet more than was under construction at this point a year ago. Most of the projects are off-campus facilities to accommodate out-patient services.
Housing inventory is expected to grow by double digits, giving buyers a better chance at finding a home this year, Realtor.com reported June 13 in its revised housing market forecast. Buyers are expected to take a summer break from the market, allowing active listings to grow so there’s more choice when they return to home shopping in the fall.
Pop up content here.