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Home prices are expected to fall by 8% next year, but with mortgage rates hovering near 7%, affordability will be at its lowest point since 1985, according to Capital Economics, MarketWatch reported Nov. 19. Additionally, sales and starts for single-family homes are expected to drop to some of the lowest levels in a decade. A market recovery is expected in 2024, however.
More than $15 trillion in home value is at risk from both wildfires and floods over the next 30 years, according to research published Nov. 16 by Realtor.com and First Street Foundation. Wildfires account for $8.8 trillion in home value risk while flooding accounts for $6.5 trillion in home value risk. The research also revealed that homebuyers typically prefer lower-risk properties, which appreciate faster.
Commercial real estate prices could experience a slight decrease nationwide, but strong job growth should drive demand in many markets, the National Association of Realtors’ Chief Economist Lawrence Yun stated Nov. 12. Yun noted that he’s seeing some decline in commercial appraisal values, with office properties especially vulnerable since many companies have shifted to remote work.
Multifamily building permits and starts are up while those for single-family homes are down, according to the RealPage report Multifamily Taking Larger Share of Total Housing, MBA NewsLink reported Nov. 14. Multifamily permitting and starts in September were up 25.5% and 16.5%, respectively, year over year while single-family permitting and starts were down 17% and 18.5%, respectively.
Generation Z — adults aged 18-25 — is largely interested in homeownership, but they are concerned about overcoming the challenges necessary to achieve that goal, Freddie Mac reported Nov. 16 in its Generation Z study. Thirty-four percent of survey respondents said homeownership seems out of reach financially, up from 27% in 2019, with 39% expressing concerns about saving for a down payment.
An increasing number of voters supported affordable housing initiatives during the midterm elections, with some measures receiving more than 70% of the vote in both red and blue states, according to a review from Moody’s Analytics, GlobeSt.com reported Nov. 15. In Austin, Texas, for example, voters approved a $350 million bond, as affordable housing currently makes up just 6% of the city’s rental market.
Mortgage rates dropped during the past week following the release of data suggesting inflation may have peaked, Freddie Mac reported Nov. 17 in its Primary Mortgage Market Survey. While lower mortgage rates can benefit potential homebuyers, interest rates are expected to remain high, which can inhibit consumer spending.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency announced Nov. 14 that it will decrease the multifamily loan purchase caps for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to $75 billion each, which is down slightly from this year’s $78 billion loan caps. FHFA bases the caps on projected multifamily originations.
The median asking rent in the U.S. rose 7.8% year-over-year in October, marking the slowest growth in 14 months as demand slows amid economic uncertainty, Redfin reported Nov. 16. Milwaukee, Wisconsin, reported the largest drop in asking rents, down 17.6% from last October. Rents also significantly declined in Minneapolis and Baltimore.
Housing starts decreased 4.2% in October as high mortgage rates, rising construction costs and weakening demand put a strain on single-family home construction, the National Association of Home Builders reported Nov. 17. This year will mark the first time since 2011 that single-family home starts decline on an annual basis.
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